Sovereign economic policy of Russia and structural dynamics of the economy

Abstract

Since 2022, Russia has been observing a general course towards sovereignization of macroeconomic policy, that is, ensuring its independence from external analytical centers, consultations, recipes and instruments. At the same time, the monetary and partly financial policy continues to be within the narrow stereotypical framework of the monetarist “mainstream”, which, for the sake of suppressing inflation, does not take into account the substantive basis for the functioning of the economy. The purpose of the study is to determine the content of sovereign economic policy and its main imperatives, showing the nature of the structural dynamics of the Russian economy, which is affected by the implemented basic guidelines of macroeconomic policy and the methods of its implementation. The methodology of the study is presented by the theory of economic policy within the framework of the classical doctrine of “goals – tools”, as well as the author’s principle of “distributed control” and the theory of structural dynamics. The overall result boils down to substantiating the fact that structural changes in the Russian economy in the period 2022– 2024 did not change the basic sectoral proportions. Moreover, the existing structural model of GDP dynamics has not undergone major changes with the dominance of gross consumption and a very modest contribution of investment expenditures (gross accumulation, including gross accumulation of fixed capital), which best determined the dynamics of GDP in 2023. Although economic policy has acquired greater sovereignty, moving away from neoclassical recipes for macroeconomic stabilization, since sectoral forms of policy have acquired greater scope, institutional regulation has strengthened, monetary policy, for example, continued to be in the perspective of neoliberal approaches. It worked to clearly restrain economic growth, preserving imperatives that cannot be considered attributes of sovereign policy.