Modeling of financial and credit behavior of the population

Abstract

The growth of the consumer lending market in our country and in the world is accompanied by an increase in the indebtedness level of the population, which is a source of concern at the level of regulators. In these circumstances, the presence of a consistent applied model of financial behavior may be useful for all market participants – for banks and financial institutions, the use of such models will make it possible to assess the need for a loan from the position of the population, which will reduce the risk of delay in payments and defaults, and reduce the credit burden upon the population. The paper presents a model allowing description of the financial situation description for an individual on the basis of the determinants of financial behavior, selected on the basis of the discriminant analysis based on the NBCH database for 2008-2018, and to model his financial and credit behavior. The model has good predictive power, in 2019 the consumer lending market shown a steady positive trend, and from October 1, requirements for mandatory reserves have been tightened.