Situational modeling and a forecasting of emergency situations. New functions and management tasks

Abstract

The classification of functioning situations and development of complex objects of management is given. Standard emergency management regimes are considered, as well as main factors that influence management decision-making depending on the situation. New control functions in various regimes implemented in the emergency control system based on situational analysis in case of scenario research of the behavior of the researched object are proposed. Management tasks providing the implementation of the proposed functions are considered.

The author also offeres new approaches to the expansion of methodical, mathematical and information support of emergency control systems what will allow to effectively solve a wide range of management tasks in the processes of preventing and eliminating the consequences of emergencies at the strategic, tactical and operational levels. The proposed methods provide a possibility for a complex multidimensional research of alternative options for the emergency situations development with the specified target and criterion settings under uncertainty.

The considered scenario characteristics of the functioning and development of situations are seen as a basis in creation of an operational database for the prevention and elimination of emergencies.